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    • Stuart Rothenberg

Stuart Rothenberg Newsletter
  • Top National Poll Shows 2024 Presidential Race to Be a Competitive One 08 Apr 2024 22:54 GMT

    … published an opinion piece from Stuart Rothenberg acknowledging, "For Biden, being …

  • Stuart Rothenberg: So what if Democrats meddled in GOP primaries? 05 Oct 2022 09:53 GMT

    WASHINGTON — My head almost exploded recently when I heard yet again that Democrats had violated some sort of code of ethics by spending money to promote weaker Republican candidates in primaries this cycle. I thought we had moved on to other subjects …

  • Stuart Rothenberg: The fight for the Senate: Fundamentals, polling and opposition research 28 Sep 2022 09:42 GMT

    When I was handicapping races day in and day out, I always started with race fundamentals (e.g., demographics, past political performance in the district or state) and, later in a cycle, switched to watching polls to see where races stood and were headed. …

  • Stuart Rothenberg: Midterms 2022: April seems like ancient history 21 Sep 2022 08:35 GMT

    Less than six months ago — April, to be specific — Democrats were wringing their hands about the party’s prospects in November and Republicans were counting their chickens before their midterm eggs had hatched. It was only late April when Republican …

  • Stuart Rothenberg: Learning from the 1998 and 2002 midterms 08 Sep 2022 10:09 GMT

    The 1998 and 2002 elections remain the only times since 1932 that the president’s party has gained House seats in a midterm. Do those elections tell us anything about this year’s election? Midterms tend to bring out the disappointed and angry, who almost …

  • Stuart Rothenberg: Confused about 2022? You should be 21 Jul 2022 04:21 GMT

    I’ve seen more than a few election cycles, but I’m not certain I have seen many that are more confusing than the one we are now in. Which “rules” of handicapping still hold in the current environment, and which fell by the wayside as our parties changed, …

  • Stuart Rothenberg: Still in trouble … and getting worse 26 May 2021 04:43 GMT

    WASHINGTON — A little more than six months ago, on Nov. 16, I wrote a column entitled “A country in a whole lot of trouble.” That was less than two weeks after Election Day. Since then, things have deteriorated. I suppose if you are a Democrat, a …

  • Stuart Rothenberg | Lowering the bar for the Biden administration 28 Jan 2021 06:33 GMT

    Less than two years from now, during Joe Biden’s first midterm election — and assuredly four years from now, during the next presidential contest — one of the two parties is likely to raise an inevitable question: “Are you better off now than you were two …

  • Stuart Rothenberg: GOP shouldn’t count its midterm chickens before they hatch 09 Dec 2020 02:58 GMT

    House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has already guaranteed that his party will take back the chamber in two years. He could be right. Or not. We have no way of knowing what things will look like in May or October of 2021, let alone April or September of …

  • Stuart Rothenberg | GOP shouldn’t assume midterm victories 04 Dec 2020 01:20 GMT

    House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has already guaranteed that his party will take back the chamber in two years. He could be right. Or not. We have no way of knowing what things will look like in May or October of 2021, let alone April or September of …

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